Saturday 22 November 2014

THE JANISSARY'S SWORD: A METHOD TO THE STOCK TRADER

If there is a myriad of strategies that can be used for trading in the stock markets, there's only one good trading strategy...

It does not consist of trying to run after the small details of the galaxy of financial securities and/or markets for such a broad approach requires a lot of time and consequently carries with it frustration as well as unforeseen losses. What is required instead is specialization, especially if one does not trade full time. Expertise in a defined field is not required; the trader has to be excellent at something instead of smattering in everything regarding the financial market. This could be a certain industry or sector; but it could also be a specific or defined strategy...

In Turkey, many successful investors (or amateur traders) have followed the strategy of following one stock and made fortunes. This strategy is also used by the traders in major investment banks across the world and they are expert in a specific field such as currencies, stock, bonds or repurchase agreements without excluding futures, options and commodities.

But this approach borrows a lot from the trend following approach. The strategy requires holding a stock for a few weeks or months and being sufficiently expert enough in that particular stock in order to set a take profit level which indicates when to sell, i.e. when a major change in the trend occurs in the market. Essentially one buys until the trend reverses and then one switches the process.

When I traded in the ISE (Istanbul Stock Exchange), I was jumping on every stock but generally my position went to nowhere other then meeting barely the inflation rate. It wasn't until I specialized in a half a dozen large stocks that I started to make substantial amount of money. I was betting on the seasonal effects and using technical analysis to adjust my timing. I did not accumulate additional positions in any given stock but tried to buy it at a reasonable level, a level that was sure enough to avoid heading south.

It takes time to develop an expertise but once it is developed, one has an edge over the herd. The important thing is to set a take profit level where the position will be closed and to stick to it. Once the take profit level is reached, the position is closed.

When you concentrate on a defined industry, it allows you to control the market just once a day in order to check the prices. If there is no signal that triggers a buy or sell order, you control it the next day and so on. Focusing only in a certain industry permits you to avoid major decision mistakes and grow your capital rapidly. But the prerequisite for the success of this strategy is to  have a capital that you can afford to lose; it has it's financial as well as it's psychological reasons: if the money will be needed for something else, the trader will be afraid and thus will be unable to make the right decision.

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