The local election results were interpreted all over the world as AKP's undisputed victory and it has been celebrated as the end of the political instability in Turkey. Actually the results contain very worrying regional defeats and pessimistic trends.
Now let's look a little further. What will happen if the general elections of 2015 result in this way? Some simulations have been performed and accordingly, the number of the seats of AKP falls from 326 to 290 and the possibility of changing the constitution ends forever.
Should this election be compared with the previous local elections or with the referendum on the constitution or with the last general elections? If Erdogan says "this election is a referendum for me", then it is. Let's take a look at the votes AKP received during the constitutional referendum and the general elections:
Constitutional referendum of 2010: %58
General elections of 2011: 50%
Local elections of 2014: 45.5%
These results cause much concern for there is a long term trend. AKP loses the title of "everyone's party" and is pushed back to the conservative-Islamist base. A "yes" or "no" vote is given in the referendums. Erdogan has lost this referendum by a wide margin. This nation said clearly NO to his political style and to his wish of acquittal from corruption through the polls.
BDP has become the first party in some parts of the East and in all the Southeast. The claim that AKP was representing the Kurds disappeared with this election. The Kurds will seek heavy concessions in order to resume the peace process. The statement that the tapes circulated by the Cemaat did not weaken AKP's image is a plain lie. The 15%-16% performance of the MHP shows that a portion of the conservative votes went to this party. The MHP and the BDP-HDP which have been very successful in this election represent two opposite ends. In what kind of a compromise will this polarization result? If the Kurdish demands are not met before the presidential elections, will they take to the streets again?
Can Erdogan be elected as the next president following these results? He will definitely be a candidate but he will also not entrust the party to Abdullah Gul. AKP will go to the elections of 2015 with a weak leader. But Erdogan has more than 60% chances of winning the presidential election. The equation looks something like this:
The four parties will enter to the race with their own candidate. In the second round, the candidates of AKP and CHP will compete because the said parties will receive the most of the votes. The voters of MHP and BDP will start to look for a new leader. But the MHP votes will not go to Erdogan because he is making a grave mistake by disdaining the opposition leaders. As a result, the votes of MHP will go to CHP and Erdogan will need BDP's votes in order to win. One can wonder what BDP will request from Erdogan in exchange of its support.
These results may look like a victory to the AKP but this is not a defeat for the opposition nor for the Cemaat. During the long period until the presidential election, the Gulen community will continue its efforts in order to destabilize Erdogan and Erdogan will retaliate with an operation similar to the Ergenekon case. (probably, Erdogan will liquidate the Guven movement). In this case, it will be difficult to re-establish confidence in the economy. Even if the politics leave totally the arena in Turkey, the growth model is now blocked. It is very difficult to grow without raising the current account deficit to GDP ratio to 7% and the inflation to 10%. If AKP wants to increase its chances in the presidential election, it will have to keep the economy alive. It is hard to achieve this without scaring the foreign capital.
But the most frightening is the following: the situation that the analyst close to AKP say as "CHP has been squeezed in the Thrace and Aegean coast" is in fact that CHP is the first party (or showed a performance close to AKP) in the regions and metropolitan areas where Turkey's modern, well-educated people and high-productivity regions are present. AKP continues to be the party of the Black Sea coast and Central Anatolia which are conservative, poor and closed societies. Turkey is experiencing two simultaneous political races. The first is the struggle for equality and ethnicity between MHP and BDP. The second is the lifestyle war raging between CHP representing the "moderns" and the AKP representing the "conservatives". But no one will win this race. Turkey did not make any positive move for a long time in the peace process and it will continue to be ruled by a government who has been elected by a small majority but is hated by the everyone else.
The other possible scenario would be as follows:
Following this local election, Erdogan liquidates the Gulen movement by a series of arrests and trials. At the same time, he establishes his authoritarian rule by clamping down his opponents and dissent in general through the ruthless use of law enforcement and intensifying the censorship efforts (thus, he will start to become a threat to the democracy). He may wish to continue as Prime Minister for a fourth consecutive term by changing the AKP rules. Before the presidential elections, he choses a relatively weak person to run the AKP and joins the presidential election. Once he is elected as the president, he will rule AKP through this weak person until the elections of 2015. In this election, AKP will lose due to the economic crisis and political unrest and the CHP-MHP coalition government will replace it. This government will enact laws which will limit the powers of the presidency and thus rendering Erdogan's position as meaningless and in time, he will be liquidated. Then, the liquidation of the moderate Islamic movement will follow by the installment of a secular regime in its proper form. This will also be a marked departure of Turkey from the East by turning its face to the West and strengthen its ties with the European Union.
But for the time being, Turkey did not make its decision over whether it wants a democracy or an arbitrary autocratic rule. But the economy will be the criteria overriding all other necessities. Half of the corruption claims in ony other democratic country is enough for the collapse of the government but in Turkey, this was reflected only by a 5% loss in terms of support. Decidedly, the political recipe of Erdogan which is simply based on ruthless antagonism won the day again... But for how long?
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