THE EDGES OF A SUCCESSFUL TRADER/INVESTOR

 The edges of a successful trader/investor.

 

When dealing with investments and trading, one needs to have an edge or will ultimately fail. There are four types of edges that will determine the success in investing or trading: technology, information, analysis, and statistics.

 

Technology:

 

In current state of the affairs in finance, the ultimate manifestation of the technology as an edge is high frequency trading. The speed of execution is essential and whoever has the fastest and efficient program will be the ultimate winner.

 

The technology manifest itself as following:

 

·         Vast quantity of data is processed efficiently by the market participants through technology.

·         Before the internet, corporate visits by investors or analysts made a big difference whereas with the emergence of the internet, valuable company data is accessible for everyone.

·         Developments in AI (artificial intelligence) and ML (machine learning) has made them powerful analytical tools and they are getting better as time passes.

 

Due to high level of competition, it is quite difficult and expensive to maintain the technological edge. High frequency trading requires ever greater spending in capital expenditures with decreasing returns. Before its advent, the market participants relied on linear regression whereas now it is the neural networks. Despite all this, algorithmic trading is not always the winner and there are many discretionary traders or investors who are quite successful in their endeavour. The algorithmic programs must be programmed by men with differing guidelines and trading perspectives.

 

Information:

 

The financial operations undertaken in the capital and money markets were always based on an information model. According to Georges Marie Mathieu-Dairnvaell, back in June 1815, Nathan Mayer Rothschild had earned a fortune by learning early the outcome of the battle of Waterloo ahead of everyone else by using his couriers and used this knowledge to speculate London Stock Exchange by first selling short the stocks and once the good news arrived, he bought back his stocks at a good profit thus making a vast fortune by defrauding the other stockholders.

 

In the 21^st century, there was one instance where the trace of capitalizing early on non-public information could be spotted prior the September 11, 2001 attacks; the week before, there was a heavy short position in the NYSE, especially the last 3 days of the week and this has never been questioned by the authorities. And when the market plummeted after the attacks, the plunge was explained by the panic selling…

 

Today, there is a deluge of information and people want to have the information democratised. But knowledge does not make anyone better in terms of skill because anything that is written in the mainstream is already known and thus reflected on the prices. Listening to the experts in various financial channels does not translate into an operational success.

 

If one needs a valuable information, one must look for it in other areas and preferably using in one’s favour some legit barriers to attain it. This could be the language barrier or unrelated field of knowledge, such as history.

 

Analysis:

 

The edge of analysis has to do with one’s analytical ability to find and analyze the relevant information and then make a sound investment decision. In theory, it makes sense and in practice, things change.

 

The markets are filled with professionals who graduated from highly praised universities and know better than anyone else all the theories on finance, economic and statistics. Yet, they still get crushed in the market: only 1% of them beat the benchmark, 4% of them breakeven whereas the remainder underperform it or are losing.

 

But the market has nothing to do with being right but making money. Being right does not provide a statistical edge in the markets but ego is the biggest and strongest destroyer of money. Thus, making money is not about being right but it as about making money…

 

Statistics:

 

The edge in trading has nothing to do with a fast CPU or a high IQ; it is a simple number with the following formula:

 

Trading edge = (1 + win) ^ probability of win X (1 + loss) ^ (1 – probability of win) – 1

 

The trader will not be successful until this trading edge turns positive, and this number must be as high as possible. But the main factor that affects this is the concept of stop loss which influences the win rate, the loss rate, and the average loss. Thus, one must accept and manage the loss to make money in the markets.

CONCERNS ABOUT THE FUTURE

CONCERNS ABOUT THE FUTURE

Developed or emerging economies are all problematic; they are also unable to produce solutions based on compromise. They were obliged to create and market optimistic scenarios from the trade volume that rose by 2.4% based on the rise of commodity prices due to oil with its reduced supply in the last quarter of 2016 and on the concerns of protectionism. Naturally, the lifespan of this kind of constraints is limited, and those who are caught up in dreams and confuse the danger with the opportunity can not escape from becoming a prey. As the systemic risk rises to new records, to elaborate optimistically upon the dollar interest’s rise does not solve the problems. 

The political developments in developed countries and the geopolitical risks in the emerging ones should be seen as the pitfalls of these negativities. In the first quarter of this year, we partially consumed the remaining painkillers, and we managed to content ourselves by exploiting the shadows of the somehow temporary and optimistic scenarios. We gave a pause to the tendencies towards increasing destabilization for a while. We have to prepare for the fact that the next set of negativities will not be overcome in this way. The present structure can not overcome the problems that it produces, the unexpressed solutions seem to start to impose large and long-term self-sacrifices.

THE U.S. DOLLAR AND THE WORLD ECONOMY

The medium-term realities at global level and the expectations that take them into account and the conditions that make it possible to meet short-term needs are not compatible; while the first one feeds the tendency to avoid risk, the other requires precisely the opposite. When one of them comes to the forefront, it causes the other to be ignored! As such, price volatility is inevitably increasing, and the likelihood that the fluctuations become more and more destructive is getting stronger.

The rhetoric and actions of the new US administration point out that protectionism in the medium term can become increasingly strengthened. It is worth noting that ignoring this and other influences on all other trends means that you will have to face much more serious costs in the future and that nothing will remain the same. This fact disturbs those who are responsible for the frailties created by globalization and those who are at risk beyond normal; they are forced to admit that fear will not change their fate!

The strengthening of protectionism in the medium term means the strengthening of risk aversion and the increase in the systemic fragility. Global trade volume will start to shrink very sharply; the highly corrupted financial structure will start to disintegrate due to the uncontrolled increases in non-performing loans. Global problems that can not be solved by consensus will be tried to be overcome with cold or hot conflicts. All priorities and strategies will have to change, capital movements will shrink. Price volatility will increase and balance sheets will be worn out; the negativity in economic expectations will become chronic. The interventions in favor of the planning but against the market will increase and will become diversified. The ones who got into deep relation with the lawlessness called globalization or those who depend on taking big risks will the ones who will be the most worn out.

The tendencies that are briefly summarized above and the pricing the trade battles that the new US administration has ignited mean that the market is cutting it's own throat. Because of this, they are ignored and the overthrow of the complaint about the overvalued dollar is used as a justification to turn the agenda into their own favor and create opportunities to reduce their risk! They try to market the depreciation of the dollar with the interpretation that the risk appetite has begun to return; in order to gain some time and to save themselves, they cannot find anything else other than trapping those who do not understand what's going on!

The argument over the value of the dollar is not very meaningful for an understanding that is seeking the solution in protectionism. As the strengthening of the dollar will cause the inflation and the rise in interest rates to become more limited, those who embrace conservatism will not sincerely oppose it; it is of a tactical nature to speak of it, it is used as justification for some new initiatives, and is nothing more than a compulsion to compromise the other side. Through the rhetoric of the value of the dollar, it may be nothing less than a blissful appreciation to say that the new administration has distanced itself from the protectionist understanding!

Medium term trends indicate that protectionism will be strengthened, the tendency to avoid risk will be more decisive and the dollar will continue to appreciate for a while, even if it fluctuates wildly. This picture does not say good things to the emerging economies and the financial markets, especially to the countries that have serious levels of saving gaps.

RISING PROTECTIONISM AND EXTREMISM

RISING PROTECTIONISM AND EXTREMISM

The global trends that are unsustainable and pushing the extremes have long begun to create their own opposite. As the irrationality called globalization became monolithic and monetary authorities became ineffective, protectionist tendencies began to strengthen; the strengthening of risk aversion was inevitable. Trying to save the financial system during the global crisis,  shifting the political center to the right and anti-immigration policies especially in developed economies, were the footsteps of rising protectionism. Through the shift of production and the feeding of the perception of the systematic risk by affecting global trade volume was inevitable. From this point of evaluation, the results stemming from the UK's EU referendum or US presidential election cannot be considered as a surprise. The results of failing to produce global solutions and based on consensus to the global problems were obvious.

Protectionist tendencies that have begun to come to the forefront mean that their perspective is rapidly shifting to the medium term, and the tendency to avoid risk is likely to continue to grow in a fluctuating way. It is not time to pursue dreams!

THE FED AND TRUMP'S ECONOMIC POLICY

THE FED AND TRUMP'S ECONOMIC POLICY

Beyond the Fed’s quarter-point interest rate increase, it as the “light in the tunnel” that came afore; and this was the potential interest rates in the future. In its present state, the Fed is likely to raise at least 3 times the interest rate in 2017 by 0.25 each.

Based on this scenario, the minimum level that the Fed’s interest rate hike at the end of 2017 will be 1.50. The Fed’s economic forecasts seem to be very strong as they support this potential interest rate hike; the economy is almost at full employment level. If then, the interest hikes may become stronger.

Such a change in the outlook of interest rate increase regarding 2017 means bad news for the U.S. high yield bonds; it is the same for the emerging countries. This picture has strengthened the expectations regarding the movement of the interest rates of U.S. 10-year note to a level above 3 percent.

It seems that the Fed is reacting to the fast-changing expectations of the market regarding Trump’s potential economic policy instead of performing a calibration of its policy in accordance with it. Thus, the Fed is considering the probable change in the fiscal policy after Trump. Whatever is the situation, the Fed has warned the markets; “we can speed up!”.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year note which was 1.54 percent in July is now 2.5 percent. This picture has strengthened the prospective raise of the interest rates. By moving into 3.00-3.50 territory, the emerging markets’ bond yields will be forced to move upwards in a similar fashion and will also force the reverse flow in the capital flow that constitute the portfolio investments. And the economic stagnation that will follow will be a threat to the current sovereign ratings of the emerging countries.

TOUGH TIMES AHEAD

TOUGH TIMES AHEAD

Trump's policies will trigger the economic growth, and in turn, this growth will trigger inflation. And when the increase in debt is added to this, interest rates on bonds rose. The interest rate hike has strengthened. The strong dollar has forced gold to sink. Copper reflects the best of the developments. Growth-sensitive copper prices have risen more than 18,61 percent since 21102016.

The US presidential election ended like Britain's Brexit. The British elector turned out to be a more independent, anti-immigrant and economic protectionist policy by voting for the UK's departure from the EU. The Americans also led the United States in the same way by voting Donald Trump, an anti-globalization, insurgent, and conservative candidate.

If the promises in the election process are to be passed on, or partly implemented, the United States will be at the beginning of the process of isolation from the world economy. During his campaign, Trump promised that he would cut taxes, undertake infrastructure investments, bring American companies back to the United States, build skyscrapers with American steel, and set a wall in front of immigration and free trade. He sold his idea well and took his presidency.

Next is the referendum in Italy. It will be followed by the elections in Germany, France, and Netherlands in 2017. We will see that those who criticized today the US electorate by saying "How did the Americans chose this guy" will bring to the power their Trump. With this political wave coming after the global crisis, the world is rushing to the conservative politics in full speed. If everyone becomes inward, the results are obvious. It's like we're going through a cycle where globalization and world trade will take a hit.

If Trump succeeds in applying his promises, the American economy will win, but the rest of the world will lose. China, which can not sell its steel, will probably not keep the US Treasury paper in its possession. We can live the most severe phases of trade and currency wars in the coming period. This will bring about great turbulence and volatility in the world economy, financial markets and capital flows.

If Trump can fulfill its promises, public investments will increase, budget deficits will grow, private sector spending will increase, and growth and employment will increase. This is best reflected in copper prices. It is the most sensitive metal to growth, and it rose 18,61 percent since 21102016. The triggering of the growth will bring inflation.

Today's projection of inflation on the horizon is in the form of rising interest rates. As the interest rates increase and the policies will be implemented, the capital will be sent to the United States and the dollar will appreciate in value. As the dollar rises, other major currencies, and moreover developing country currencies, will depreciate in value.

US interest rates constitute the basis for the rest of the world. With the increase in the rates there, the interest rates of developed and developing countries are increasing as well. Country risks are rising, like it happened in the recent weeks. The first guiding against Trump's wind could be the FED again, through its speech or interest rate decision in December. But whatever happens, we have entered a period of high turbulence.

A NEW AREA IN POLITICS, GLOBALIZATION AND MONEY

A NEW AREA IN POLITICS, GLOBALIZATION AND MONEY

The US, presidential elections were won the Republican candidate Donald Trump. Two major factors influenced this.

First, Trump responded to the desire for change from the wider community after the global crisis. The image of "advocating America first" with the emphasis on protective politics, the walling and immigration prevention on the Mexican border, the image of shaking the current system with style and rhetoric has met a section of the need for change. The reaction against the FED, Wall Street and current status quo also reinforced this image. These rhetoric and attitudes jhave encompassed the unemployed, the low income, the broader sections that did not benefit from globalization and suffered from the crisis.

Secondly, the fact that the Democratic Party has been in power for two periods and that it has to change the presidential candidate due to the two-term rule is also an important handicap. The new presidential candidate Clinton was in front of the US public for a long time. She was not new as a face and was worn out. She did not say anything new either. FBI investigations of the e-mails from the Ministry of Foreign Affairsand and her health problems have also been handicaped her. She represented exactly the status quo and was defeated. With another candidate, the Democrats could have won more votes, but this could not be sufficient to win the presidency anyway.

We see that a global trend that started with Brexit in the UK and with the US selection, it is getting more clear. This trend is an anti-globalization, a nationalist and local trend that encloses countries and economies. It is due to the demands of large segments, who did not benefit from the benefits of globalization, to get more share from the economy. This can only be done under authoritarian leadership, with the determination and compulsion of the leader who is closer to the people. In the elections to be made in major countries after the UK and the US elections, we can see this in more or less the same way. The disturbances created by society and the deterioration of the distribution of income by globalization and the crisis are becoming more and more evident in the elections. Voters' orientation of politics in this way may not only increase the momentum and protection of globalization, but also increase the public weight in the economy. More statist approaches can come to the forefront.

It is difficult for the central banks to maintain their abundant and cheap monetary policies in the face of this change in the global political conjuncture. Anyway, when the signs from here are played out, it is possible that the period of abundant and cheap money ends with the influence of the developments on the side of politics. The large and inexpensive money that was launched against the crisis and sustained for 8 years did not favor the large masses. The prices of financial assets and real estate have increased, as the abundant liquidity created by the central banks were mainly used by the financial sector. Wealth and capital grew more and more. Now, the broader societies want politics to put an end to this situation.

Considering this situation, it would be more destructive for the medium and long-term effects compared to the initial impact of shocks in the markets in the short-term. Since 2008, the volatility of financial markets has built-up and moved on an artificial ground at high altitude. But it is also a big blow to the abundant and cheap money structure. The demolition of the structure will take some time.

HEADING TOWARDS A NEW FINANCIAL CRISIS

HEADING TOWARDS A NEW FINANCIAL CRISIS

The global economy has become more fragile financially than 2008 and the world will not get out without a crisis from the negative interest process. In the aftermath of the global crisis, the debt rose to $50 trillion,
assets' bubble formed with the low interest rates and abundant money.

What is important is what will happen to the US economy. If a long period of stagnation or contraction in the economy occurs there, there will be no power to keep the world economy going. The United States and the Fed can do nothing against this new shock for they have exhausted their ammunition. In this case, the world will experience a more severe debt crisis.

There's a concern regarding the outlook of the world economy; growth has dropped to the lowest level after the crisis. Although the United States caused the crisis, it recovered faster than the other economies but it's economy is much more fragile than thought. Both in the USA and in the EU, the crisis was mismanaged.
The applied policies have even made more serious the systemic and structural problems of the world economy. Income distribution has deteriorated further. The purchasing power of workers is not enough to buy the goods and services they produce and this is creating problems in the demand and reduces the production. Companies are more engaged in speculation than productive investment. They create a bubble in the stock market or real estate market by borrowing excessively.

For these reasons, there are serious and widespread concerns about heading towards a new crisis without fully resolving the crisis that began in the USA. In the case of a new economic recession, there is nothing much that the USA can do because the ammunition has been exhausted. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, made the monetary expansion and opened a financial package. Aside the economic crisis, Europe has not been able to solve the financial crisis. The Euro-zone was able to catch up in the first quarter of the 2016 the pre-crisis level of GDP after sustaining revenue losses for a long time.

The crisis is spreading to emerging and developing countries as a third wave after the US and Europe. 3-5 years ago, these countries were the locomotive of the world economy. Currently the issue has become a part of the problem. They're all almost fragile, including China and India; some are already in recession. The rest is showing efforts to grow with debt. More importantly, the global economy has become financially more fragile. The reason for the crisis in the US and the EU, was excessive debt. The solution that was found to it was zero interest rates and rapid monetary expansion by creating more debt.

Not only in the US and Europe, a total of 50 trillion dollars in debt has been created all over the world since 2008. GDP ratio of this debt has increased 50 points over the last 6 years. Most of them are denominated in dollars and carry a serious interest and exchange rate risk. If the global economy starts to shrink once again and enters a recession, a significant portion of this debt can not be paid and there can be a larger debt crisis than 2008.

The fate of the entire world has become almost dependent on US monetary policy. It is very difficult to revert from the zero interest rate policy or negative interest rate without creating an earthquake in the capital and money markets.

What can be done against a serious and persistent financial shocks that may come from the US or from the financial markets? Most of the economies don't have many options. The economic foundations are not solid, saving and investment are very low, the balance of payments is fragile, reserves are insufficient and the industry is weak.

The area of maneuver for fiscal and monetary policy is much more limited than in 2008. The response to the shocks may be as usual like raise interest rates, use the reserves, once they are finished borrow from the IMF, rescue the banks and foreign creditors, let the IMF tighten more your belt, the economic growth will shrink and the unemployment will rise. The economies that do not want to face such a situation should plan right away what to do against the almost inevitable shocks.

FINANCIAL AUTUMN AT SIGHT

FINANCIAL AUTUMN AT SIGHT

During the latest period, a discussion comes to the foreground: the central banks' excessively loose monetary policies have brought the bonds' long-term yields to record low but it is believed that it is no more useful and in case of a new recession wave, the central banks don't have any weapons left in their arsenal.

There is no progress in the inflation, in the demand for loans and in the economic growth, despite issuing money to the marketplace by the massive buying of the bonds by the two main central banks of the European Region and Japan where the central banks passed to the negative interest rate in their respective monetary policies. For example, despite the buying by the Bank of Japan not only of bonds but also of stock funds too, this has not changed much the expectations.

The fact that the global bond stock of 13-14 trillion dollars has turned to negative return is not only showing the fear but it also feeds it. And this fear is the fear of the collapse of the financial sector. Due to this, the leading "investment gurus" are whispering "buy Gold".  As you know, gold is the only investment vehicle which does not carry a "counterparty risk". Whether a stock or a bond, the issuer has an obligation. The issuer has a bankruptcy, a default risk.

With the strengthening of data, the central banks may raise the interest rates but it is not the end of the world as the investment community thinks. If things go to worse, past monetary policies could be adopted as well as some unorthodox vehicles not used so far and which have been very effective in the past.

The normalization in the raise of the interest rate by the Federal Reserve is imminent but not undertaken which, in turn, hurts the Federal Reserve's credibility and the economy. Consequently, the Federal Reserve should eliminate the pressure that is felt by the economy and the emerging markets by changing this attitude.

Also, the pessimism regarding the economic growth is due to the productivity. The central banks cannot find a solution to this productivity problem with monetary policies alone and the politicians should take the relevant measures by coming into the game.

A GLOBAL VIEW OF THE WORLD ECONOMY

A GLOBAL VIEW OF THE WORLD ECONOMY

The stock markets’ transaction volumes have fallen and are still weak; there was a heightened volatility. Emerging countries are having fluctuations in their currencies. We are seeing zigzags in the stock markets. We have fluctuations in a band but the volume looked shallow. Everyone is looking at the same place: what will the Fed do?

There are problems that have resurfaced in Europe. Let’s start with the example of Spain; Spain’s debt is high; because it has not been restructured like Greece’s debt and a portion of it has not been deleted, the problem is still not solved. It has been ignored for a while but the debt is there. The problems that Spain had 5 years ago are still present and one has to take into account that it got a bit worse. Currently, because the problem has spread across the continent, Spain stayed in the background; actually, the European baking system is ill. They cannot find the formula for recapitalizing them, the central bank’s efforts are not sufficient in meeting the demand. Let’s suppose that they’re enough; as long as the emerging economies are stagnating, it will look like turning the wheel with borrowed energy. You're correcting something, but the problem continues to grow; due to this, it’s going to nowhere, it carries on regressing. Europe is very problematic…

In the United States, the Fed is about to lose its mind. Obviously they saw something.  In 2013, they determined a calendar for the application of the interest rate increase in order to get away with the least damage; they aimed at reducing the overseas risks and to avoid the ballooning of the assets in the domestic market. They did not succeed in both objectives.

The minutes state the reasons why there no rise in the interest rate and why they cannot lower it. But the problem is: central banks are becoming ineffective, the Fed is no exception. That is, it wanted to stay the sole power but it will no longer have the chance for this. Currently, the Fed cannot raise the interest rate; so be it! If things get worse, a new monetary expansion could be undertaken, interest rate could be lowered; so be it! But the problem is the following: first; USA will not be able to reduce its risks with minimum damage; second, even if the Fed lowers the interest rate, the trend of taking risks across the globe will not come back in force. The pyramid is crumbling. In this game, the play makers took a risk and will suffer the consequences. Another information ca be derived from this picture. The West is losing its ability to direct the capital. It was the West’s most powerful weapon. The other strong elements were derived from there. If it loses this power, we can say that the current days are the better days of the West. Let’s combine them: the tendency to stagnation in the world is continuing, the growth forecasts will be reduced gradually; the global employment will shrink; nonperforming loans’ volume will increase across the globe. Things are not going well and the horizon is dark. The persons who are seeing this will try to reduce their risks while everyone is asleep; the markets will be choppy and everyone’s primary objective will not be to run for a win but make others try to do it. They will try to limit their losses. This is the main strategy and the picture points to this.

This is valid for the individuals as well as for the State. As an economic system, the West is collapsing; the East is rising but no one will come out alive from a world economic crisis. More precisely, there can be some who can come out alive. Imagine two boxers who punch each other at the same time; whoever survives will be declared as the winner. But both will be worn out. Wars are the same; currently the world economy is worn out, the wear rate will vary in some regions, but all the world will be losing.

Stieglitz is talking about two currencies. What was Europe's trouble? In 1957, EU which was the EEC since then, had taken the path of homogenization. For this purpose, it determined some standards; it is obvious that it didn’t go the way they wanted it to go; they could not provide homogenization and the application of a single currency has aggravated these problems because the homogenization was not achieved. 15 years ago, Europe had a design; after 9/11, a multi-speed Europe. The activated the Convention poll; it is obvious that some are saying that the currency should be two-speed, but as long as how this subject is going to be becomes complex, it will create a problem. One thing is clear; with this current structure, Europe will be overwhelmed by problems and will not be able to solve them either.

After 9/11, the capital poured into the emerging economies. There was an abnormal increase in capacity in the emerging countries; the consumption and the employment increased rapidly as well as the investment capacity increased abnormally with the inflow of the said capital. When we look at the current situation, we can see that there’s stagnation in demand but a terrible supply has been created. If there is an excess supply, what can be done? First; one will work to increase the demand but the consumption is problematic and it cannot increase permanently. Then, the supply will shrink. At the moment, the financial markets are pricing the demand side and are ignoring the problems of the supply; but the economic balances are forcing the necessity of the urgent liquidation of the excess supply. This chaos is also an element that reinforces risk aversion. Due to this, the ones who think that today’s balances will be permanent and will go for the better are simply dreaming and cannot get rid of the wrong strategies; more serious problems may be encountered, everybody must be careful. There is an excess supply in the emerging economies. Their common feature is the following: there is a large increase in employment and the service sector has come to the fore. One creates an employment; if this is 50% in the emerging countries in the past, today this stands at 60%-70%. The increase in the domestic demand has fed from here and there’s no chance to protect this demand. What will happen then? Service sector employment will contract. In order to prevent this contraction, one can adopt public spending, loose fiscal and monetary policies and these will not solve the problem. Second; they will eliminate one way or the other the excess supply; this cannot go on forever. This imbalance will not only batter the banking sector in the emerging economies but also, it will increase the volume of non-performing loans. What do we have in the world? Economic growth will lose momentum, the employment will not increase, contractions will happen (it may differ by regions), prices will not stabilize, there will be widespread fluctuations, some of which could be devastating. The more the volume of non-performing loans increases, the more the banking system will become fragile; public deficits will grow and to hide them will not solve any problem. The world is moving towards an emerging countries’ based new global credit crisis and there’s no solution to it. 

AUGUST RALLY IN THE STOCK MARKET

One should expect a rally in August in the stock markets. Because, following the very weak growth of the USA in the 2Q2016, there isn't any single investor who thinks that the Fed will dare to raise the interest rate in the foreseeable future. And as ECB will not make additional monetary easing in the short term, there is no justification for gaining more value for the dollar. Both the EU and the US entered into a moderate increase in inflation trend, but the decline in oil prices can break this trend. When coupled with the exceptionally loose monetary stance of central banks, government securities yields in developed countries will be trading in low values. Furthermore, S & P 500 is trading at a forward 17.5 P/E as measured by the estimated profit, 2 points above the median coefficient. There is a false perception regarding the acceleration in economic growth of the emerging countries.

When one adds all this up, one can see that the direction of the money will be the Emerging Markets. Moreover, it is a necessity and because the liquidity rally does not take into account the main factors and does not care too much about the political risks. Roughly 25 billion dollars entered the Emerging Markets this July only and one may expect about the same amount to enter in August. Will this favourable trend continue until autumn? We don't have any concerns about the Fed for it cannot dare to raise the interest rate in September but the fear of the Fed may be replaced with the fear of a global recession or a wave of Emerging Markets private sector bond defaults. Due to this, it is difficult to make long-term predictions.

THE BEGINNING OF THE END IN THE MARKETS

THE BEGINNING OF THE END IN THE MARKETS

Despite the fact that the BoJ has disappointed the investors, because there is an abundance of liquidity in the marketplace, not a single investor would like to miss the bonds of emerging countries which have a high yield, if there isn't any financial crisis. And if the rally in the bonds continue, it will support the currencies of the emerging markets against the dollar and also the stocks. At the same time, the loose financial conditions and high oil prices will carry on supporting the risky assets of the emerging countries during May.

The risks start in June. According to the latest poll, those who want the Brexit in England are leading by 46% compared to those who want to stay in the EU who are %44. China's economic growth is pumped up with a very dangerous credit boom, the rise in the price of oil is in an extent due to the weak dollar; but these are passive variables. The most important reason for the change in the direction of the markets will probably still be the United States. In the first scenario, we will see that the increased employment and the rise in the inflation will go beyond the endurance limits of the Fed, the signal will be given in June and the second interest hike will take place in July. In this case, the dollar will once again enter into the appreciation trend and this will trigger a hard sell in the emerging countries. In the second scenario, the Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump race will damage the confidence in the economy and the economic growth of the United States will remain below %1 throughout the year. In this case, the dollar will continuously remain weak, and the global growth story will take an end and this time, the sales which will start in Wall Street will spread to the emerging countries.

Thus, for the June-August period, the most likely scenario is: the Fed will raise once more its interest rate and the speculative funds will leave the emerging countries. Due to this, one should hold its positions in order to catch the last buy wave in May but pass to gold in June.

AN EXPENSIVE OIL WOULD BE A BLOW TO THE US ECONOMY

AN EXPENSIVE OIL WOULD BE A BLOW TO THE US ECONOMY

The rise of price of oil could be much larger than expected. In this case, it would become a serious threat to the US economy.

The increase in the barrel price could carry a heavy blow to the economy of the United States. Given the growth of prices of the black gold, the balance between supply and demand is likely to return soon to normal. In this case, prices should stabilize between 40 and 60 dollars, the cost of a barrel.

However, some factors may prevent this scenario to occur, as many situations where the US oil market may not have time to adapt to the growing demand. This could be the case if the OPEC countries finally manage to find a compromise or if the United States reduced their oil production faster than expected.

To date, the production of oil exceeds the demand only one or two percent. In this context, if demand continues to climb and some countries cut the production slightly, the surplus will disappear.

Therefore, the oil price should rise and in this case, the United States will be deprived of all the benefits offered by a cheap oil.

Turkey: the new monarchy of the Gulf (!)

TURKEY: THE NEW MONARCHY OF THE GULF (!)

Turkey that is about to take over the temporary presidency of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), accentuates the rhetoric of political Islam in its internal affairs and on the international stage. The official visit of the Saudi King to Turkey became further evidence.

The events of the Arab Spring have pushed Turkey to regress within the Islamic world. The Persian Gulf monarchies, currently regarded by Ankara as its closest allies, have played an important role. The international community is worried by the attempts of Turkey to incorporate in its political strategy, ideas such as moderate Islam and democracy.

From 2011, the Turkish authorities have started making plans to boost their influence in the Middle East and to become a regional leader. The essential purpose of this political strategy was to bring the Muslim Brotherhood from Tunisia to Turkey. However, the Turkish ambitions to push the Muslim Brotherhood to the centre stage in the Islamic world have been destroyed by the joint efforts of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and Turkey was left alone with her despair.

Regarding the situation in domestic politics in Turkey, everything is also very sad. Currently, the situation in the country is such that free and democratic elections are impossible, and the opposition parties are in effect deprived of the right to hold rallies and protest.

The Muslim Brotherhood, unlike Saudi Arabia, not only based its policy on a religious basis; this movement had long been supported by the West. Western countries call this strategy "moderate political Islam", "the Turkish model", but what is happening in Turkey, causes severe criticism from the Western press. The authoritarian government, violations in the field of freedom of expression, press, assembly, all this shows that the Turkish model is not working, even in Turkey. A particular important sign is the presence of financial resources coming from the Gulf countries to Turkey which have increased significantly since the 1980s.

HEADING TOWARDS THE MEGASTORM

HEADING TOWARDS THE MEGA STORM

The recent plunge in stock prices and the slowdown in global growth are taking place at the same time that investor confidence in central banks is waning. Underlying some of the turbulence of the past few months was a growing perception in financial markets that central banks might be running out of effective policy options. The global central banks have already used their most powerful weapons and are currently trying to put forward the untested, experimental policies like negative rates that cut bank profitability while having little impact on lending. But the sluggish performance of the global economy, the massive debt overhang, and the erratic behaviour of the stock market are all directly attributable to the cheap money policies coordinated and implemented by central banks following the Great Recession in 2008. While it's true that China is facing slower growth, oil prices are plunging, emerging markets have been battered by capital flight, and yields on junk bonds are relentlessly rising, it’s also true that central bank policy is not primarily designed to address these problems, but to ensure the continued profitability of its main constituents,  the big banks and mega-corporations. Keep in mind, the global economy has been sputtering for the last 6 years, but major financial institutions have only expressed alarm just recently.  Why? What’s changed? 

What’s changed is profits are down, and when profits are down,  Wall Street and its corporate allies lean on the central banks to work the levers to improve conditions. 

"There’s a big difference between companies’ advertised performance in 2015 and how they actually did. How big? S&P earnings per share fell by 12.7%, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. That is the sharpest decline since the financial crisis year of 2008. Plus, the reported earnings were 25% lower than the pro forma figures—the widest difference since 2008 when companies took a record amount of charges. The implication: Even after a brutal start to 2016, stocks may still be more expensive than they seem. Even worse, investors may be paying for earnings and growth that aren't anywhere near what they think. The result could be that share prices have even further to fall before they entice true value investors." (Wall Street Journal)

Profits are down and stocks are in trouble. Also, corporate earnings have dropped for two straight quarters which is a sign that the economy is headed for a slump. 

“Recessions have followed consecutive quarters of earnings declines 81 percent of the time, according to an analysis from JP Morgan Chase strategists, who said they combed through 115 years of records for their findings.”(CNBC)

“The increasing desperation of corporate CEOs is clear, as accounting gimmicks and attempts to manipulate earnings in 2015 has resulted in the 2nd largest discrepancy between reported results and GAAP results in history, only surpassed in 2008…..Based on fake reported earnings per share, the profits of the S&P 500 mega-corporations were essentially flat between 2014 and 2015…..earnings per share plunged by 12.7%, the largest decline since the memorable year of 2008….With approximately $270 billion of “one time” add-backs to income used to deceive the public, the true valuation of the median S&P 500 stock is now the highest in history – higher than 1929, 2000, and 2007. Wall Street’s latest con game, with the active participation of corporate CEO co-conspirators, is a last ditch effort to fend off the inevitable stock market crash….All economic indicators are flashing red for recession. Stocks are poised for a 40% decline faster than you can say Wall Street criminal banks." (Jim Quinn at Burning Platform) 

When the profitability of the world’s biggest corporations are at stake, the central banks will move heaven and earth to lend a hand. This was the basic subtext of the discussions at the recent G-20 summit in Shanghai, China. The finance ministers and central bankers wrecked their brains for two days to see if they could settle on new strategies for boosting earnings. In fact, the austerity-minded IMF even called on the G-20 to support a coordinated plan for fiscal stimulus to  boost activity and decrease the risks to the equities markets. Unfortunately, finance ministers balked because fiscal stimulus puts upward pressure on wages and shifts more wealth to working classes. That’s why the idea was shelved, because the oligarchs can’t stand the idea that workers are getting a leg-up. What they want is a workforce that scrapes by on minimum wage and lives in constant fear of losing their job.  

The “failed” G-20 summit was clearly a turning point for the markets. Now that the central banks are out of ammunition, the only hope to keep stock prices artificially high rested on Keynesian fiscal stimulus injected directly into the real economy. That hope was extinguished at the meetings. The prospect that equities can continue to climb higher in the face of shrinking profits, tighter credit, slower growth and bigger corporate debtloads is unrealistic to say the least. 

“Companies still have a little time left before they must pay down the bulk of $9.5 trillion of debt maturing in the next five years….But it’s not getting any easier for these corporations to borrow, at least not in the U.S. In fact, many of these obligations are becoming harder and more expensive to repay at a time when companies face a historic pile of bonds and loans coming due. It’s not terribly surprising that companies have a bigger debt load to pay down. They borrowed trillions of dollars on the heels of unprecedented stimulus efforts started by the Federal Reserve at the end of 2008 during the worst financial crisis since the Depression. They kept piling on the leverage as central banks around the world doubled down on low-rate policies and kept purchasing assets to encourage investors to buy riskier securities..." (Bloomberg)

The central bank policy seduced corporations into borrowing tons of money that they frittered-away on stock buybacks and dividends, neither of which create the revenue streams necessary to repay their debts. So rather than build their companies for the future, (Business investment is at record lows) corporations have been behaving the same way the Wall Street banks acted before the Crash of ’08. They've been borrowing trillions from the average investors via the bond market, rising their share prices through stock buybacks, increasing executive compensation, and dumping the money in offshore accounts. Now the bill is coming due, and they don’t have the money to repay the debt or the earnings-potential to avoid default. Something’s gotta give.

Like the gigantic asset-price bubble in stocks, it’s a sign that the economy and the markets are headed for a long and painful period of adjustment...

FED laid down on the table the interest rate hike route…

FED laid down on the table the interest rate hike route…

US Federal Reserve has finally raised the interest rate to 0.50 by increasing them by 25 basis point, the first time since 2006. FED has cited the following reasons for the rate hike: a notable improvement in the labor market and an assuring view regarding the reaching of the 2 percent in the rise of the inflation. In the statement issued after the meeting, in fact a road map for the interest rate hikes has been put forward. It has been emphasized that the FED’s stance would be consistent with the economy’s pattern and will be based again on data and this continuation of the interest rate hike will be progressive.

The 10 out of 17 members of the FED’s Open Market Committee’s decision making body see the interest rates as 1.40 at the end of 2016. If we consider this emphasis on the gradual increase and that the FED will meet 8 times in 2016, it means that it will bring the interest rates to 1.50 percent by the end of the year through 25 basis points increases.

Judging by the forecasts, within this outlook, the interest rates will also continue to increase in 2017 too and will reach 2.75 percent at the end of the year with an additional 1.25 increase. But an acceleration in the inflation may cause further increases while a deterioration in the employment may cause a suspension in the increase of the interest rate.

By pointing out the improvement in the labor market, the FED stated that the decline in oil process was effective to have the inflation rate staying below 2 percent and after the passing of these impacts, it is estimated that the inflation will be close to 2 percent at the end of 2016.

The FED is raising the interest rate gradually in order to avoid having to make a sudden high increase in the future and if necessary to be able to lower it again. Yellen says “the interest rate increase should be seen as a sign of confidence”.

The FED drew his sword and laid down its route on the table. On this route, it will slow down or accelerate in case of a different situation that may arise in this route. Without any changes in the current state, the FED will not stop in its interest rate increases.

As of today, the questions such as “will it raise the interest rate?”, “when will it raise?” are replaced by the question “will the Fed’s interest rate increase’s dose change?”. And this will be scrutinized deeply by the high yield bond market and the emerging countries. Because the extreme section of the capital markets which took advantage of the FED’s interest rate cut and its monetary expansion performed in three phases were these high yield bonds and bonds of emerging countries. Now that the FED is exiting this policy, the first effects will be seen in these markets.

In this view, the emerging countries will be forced to raise their interest rates in order to protect the interest rate difference in terms of dollars as well as to keep the value of the domestic currency. The most unprepared and which follows a loose monetary policy will be the one which will be affected the most. The fingers point out the fragile quintet. And the formula is quite simple: whoever stalls in the interest rate will see its national currency lose substantial value.

USA is entering in to the troubled waters.

Will the the Fed begin or postpone the implementation in 2015 of its plan of interest rate increase as the first step of the monetary tightening? Financial markets complains of mixed signals from the Fed. Even if the slowdown of the Chinese economy is seen as responsible for the late activity in the international stock markets, the main problem is stated to be the US economy. Is there any doubt behind the conflicting messages from the Fed?Is it concerned about the overheating of the economy?

If so, their worries cannot be considered as unfounded. After all, the US undertook in the last 40 years, four times the monetary tightening, and all of them ended in a crisis. Each time employment and production collapsed beyond the Fed's forecasts. The biggest disaster was brought by the fourth tightening implemented between 2004-2007. Now USA is entering into the troubled waters again.

Between the years 1979-1982, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, had convinced the political authority. He was hoping to take greater steps in combating  unemployment and idle capacity by controlling the money in circulation instead of the Keynesian policies which had been applied for a long time. But the cost was great. Citi and other financial institutions were difficultly saved from bankruptcy. In those years, Latin American countries that were under the direct influence of the United States were plunged into a crisis for five years.

It applied in another monetary tightening program had been applied during the 1988-1990 period. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan dragged into debt the money and credit institutions who were already struggling to survive. In order to avoid recession and save the bankrupting companies, the federal authorities made great efforts. At that time, it is said that the state of Texas had consumed all of quarterly government revenue.

Alan Greenspan, undertook another monetary tightening in 1993-1994. He hoped to obtain significant results upon the long term assets and borrowing costs through small-scale tightening. Fortunately, upon the opposition of major members of the Federal Open Market Committee, Greenspan gave up shortly the application. The US economy was saved from entering into a new recession.

The last one (2004-2007), was the most devastating. After the implementation, neither Greenspan nor his successor Bernanke understood how the financial system and the housing sector had become fragile. The world economy is still not able to get rid of the effects of the 2008 crisis started in the US. In the US, the policies, deregulations and tightenings upon which everybody is clinging to, continue but until when?

THE GREAT CRISIS OF THE CAPITALISM

THE GREAT CRISIS OF THE CAPITALISM

The beginning of the affecting of the world economy by the neoliberalism coincides with the end of the '40s. Its main tools have been the World Bank and the IMF. It showed itself in the political arena and came to power through Thatcher (1979) and Reagan (1981). In fact, by making their first appearance in the Third World countries before the developed countries, neoliberalism manifested itself in Chile with the Pinochet's coup.

The disabling of the applications such as welfare state which belonged to the "Golden Age" of the capitalism, enabled the strengthening and spreading of neoliberal policies. The surrender of the Social Democrats to the neoliberalism permitted the change of policy of the SPD, headed by Schröder, thus took effect in Europe in the same line. In fact, a return had started in another guise to the wild capitalism that the Marxists had meticulously analysed.  The circle was being closed by the neoliberals.

The neoliberal do not comprehend that the neoliberal policies cannot be sustained without pressure or tyranny, nor do they understand the causal relation between neoliberal politics and the civil or military coups. They are opposed to the coup d'etat but they don't want to abandon the neoliberalism. Now, once again the circle is closing; capitalism is in the grip of a crisis on a world scale. The resort is also likely to call on bullying.

The crisis is crushing upon the all the countries with a great noise; the ones who will bare the most pain will be the employees and the people who were pushed to the bottom rows of the income distribution during the neoliberal era. The imperialists who have began to take measures on a global scale in order to extend the life of the bankrupt policies,  are putting up a bullying on an international scale.

Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP, foresees an almost unlimited freedom through large and versatile arrangements in favour of the international capital in many areas. One does not know whether this agreement which plans to cover the northern half of the sphere will be a remedy the crisis of the capitalism. But there is one thing we are sure of: unless the persons who will put their hand in a revolutionary way upon the system, the imperialists will always be successful in overthrowing the burden of the capitalist crisis on the developing countries.

THE TAIL OF THE DRAGON: THE NIGHTMARE RISING IN THE EAST

THE TAIL OF THE DRAGON: THE NIGHTMARE RISING IN THE EAST

Being the world's second-largest economy, China's slowing growth is steadily becoming a problem in the country, there are increasing concerns over the spread like a virus that affect the global economy. While the devaluation and the successive weak economic data of the said country are scaring the investors, the causes and the results of the more visible depression nightmare are given below.

The current phase is the third phase of the global economic crisis of 2008. After the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008, the first phase of the crisis began. In this process, the United States has intervened rapidly to the crisis and through support packages, she has first recovered, then socialized the debt of the financial sector. However, because of the integrated nature of the global financial system, the crisis was not limited to the United States. The second stage of the crisis was experienced by the spread to Europe. The bankruptcy stage passed from the companies to the states. While Europe still did not emerge from the crisis, we have passed to the third stage: the deepening of the crisis. And this third stage was completed by the spreading across the world. In the production bases such as China, slowdown has become more pronounced.

In the coming period, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major central banks may deepen the crisis they had postponed further with the expansion of credit, imposed since 2008. Grounding of the global economy, which had been kept afloat by credit expansion, may arise. Particularly the Fed, the major central banks do not have the primary weapon they can use this time to avoid the incoming wave. Productive investment will be destroyed. This recession could mean further spreading. The process will not be limited to one region, like the 1994 Asian crisis. Asian markets after the 1994 crisis were included in the global financial architecture. Therefore, a problem arising in one part of the system can quickly spread to the other parts.

Fear of a global slowdown triggered by China, which already causes a drop in commodity prices, has pulled the world financial markets to the bottom. From Asia to Europe, from the US to the emerging countries, the stock markets across the world witnessed record losses. Oil prices fell more than 4 percent.

While the stock market in China has recorded a loss close to 9 percent, it was the sharpest decline since the financial crisis in 2007.The indexes that were positive by 50 percent in June compared to the beginning of the year, have retreated to the Christmas time levels.

Asian stock markets, on the concern of the ongoing decline of China's stock market in three months is going to be out of control, went down to the bottom of last three years. Losses in the European stock markets exceeded 6 percent during the day, thus experiencing the most drastic decline since the most severe period of the global financial crisis of October 2008.

The problems in China are not only limited to the stock market; the country has accumulated a lot of serious problems. Previous growth rates in China could not be sustained. With the devaluation and the gradual deterioration of the data, the market began to see it clearly. Even if the Bank of China takes the necessary steps, it will not change this fact. China will replace the preceding 10 years of growth model. While replacing it, she will decrease her economic growth rate to 3 or 4 per cent. A choice can be made between a sudden decline and a decline spread over time but she does not have an alternative as to not decline. But if they lose the control of Yuan's adjustment, it will be a very dangerous phenomenon for the world: China will begin exporting deflation. The producer inflation rate is already very negative since 42-44 months. This could bring a harder wave of deflation. The Fed will increase interest rates in September. America will enter a crisis without increasing interest rates.  There is already now a crisis in emerging markets. Global trade is expected to have the lowest growth of the last 10 years. There is an economic crisis coming from emerging markets. US can protect herself for a year or a year and a half but not more...

CAN CHINA LEAD THE WORLD INTO A NEW ECONOMIC CRISIS?

The Chinese slowdown could plunge the world into a new crisis, many economists believe. Is China so bad, and does she have such a power of influence?

When China will fall asleep ... the world will tremble. The Chinese recession, if confirmed, will drag that of Brazil, which will cause the same for the US and Europe. The expected Chinese slowdown will have colossal consequences, since China makes up a third of global growth since the beginning of the century. China is seriously ill, and the global contagion is inevitable.

China's growth is slowing. Even if it falls to 6% or 5% this year, one can not speak of recession. This is a relatively difficult transition between two growth schemes. Since 2011, China is trying to be less dependent on exports and develop its domestic market. Domestic demand remains weak, however.
This slowdown questioned China's ability to switch to an endogenous growth. The economy has excessive debt, speculative bubbles have multiplied. China has failed to initiate something virtuous on the domestic front. Meanwhile, the rise in wages that made its exports less competitive, forces it to devalue its currency to boost its foreign trade. China is in midstream, not knowing in which direction to turn.

Perhaps it is only a crisis of growth. But why China would lead the world into turmoil, starting with Brazil? Brazil is already in recession because of China. The growth was led between 2005 and 2012 by massive raw material exports to China. The decline in Chinese imports has been fatal. In return, Brazil imported Chinese products, contributing to the dynamics of world trade.

This dependency of China is evident in the case of Brazil, but it is the case in all countries. China accounts for 11% of imports in world trade. When it slows purchases, all exporters receive a kickback. This is the case of Germany, particularly exposed, where industrial productivity has been falling since 2011 and Europe is indeed threatened: one can not say that emerging countries need to support Europe's growth by purchasing their products. China's closure feeds a judgement of globalization.

China's influence on emerging markets is considerable, and the global economy is not going very well. Europe is a big stone. A new crisis is not impossible, but a return to recession could come from many poles. The eyes of the world have turned to the United States, where growth occurred for the last six years. Or to India, cited as a possible relay of China.

If China's failure does not necessarily plunge the world into recession, it seems to question the model of growth driven by trade flows. There will be more growth in the manner of the past. Anyway, the world has achieved the environmental limits; the Tianjin explosions just remind it.